Private trading group
Intelligence in continuous motion.
A private group trading its own capital. We publish occasional notes on markets, risk and the discipline of trading.
Insights
Notes on markets and trading.
Short, plain essays on how markets behave, how risk is managed and how trading ideas should be judged. Written by the members; general commentary, not advice.
Markets · Featured
Neither side is right for long
A market is better understood as a balance of forces than as a direction. The difference changes what you measure and what you do.
Risk
Risk is decided before the trade
The size of a position, the point at which it is wrong and the amount that can be lost in a day are decisions. Making them in advance is what separates trading from gambling.
Costs
Spread, slippage and the real cost of trading
Every trade pays a toll before it has a chance to be right. Participants who do not measure that toll tend to discover it in their results.
Markets
The four moods of a market
Markets trend, range, compress and expand. The same tool that works in one condition fails in the next, which is why knowing the condition comes before any decision.
Craft
Why backtests lie, and how to make them lie less
A backtest is not evidence that a strategy works. It is a hypothesis about the past, and most of the ways it can mislead are built into how it was made.